Episode 2: Getting Hip to the Cryp

Episode 2: Getting Hip to the Cryp

In our second episode CIO Jim Ayres talks with Nels Garnaas about the mystery behind crypto currency, what it is, what it's doing, and what the future holds.

Read the podcast transcript:

Jim Ayres:

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstance. It is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized financial, legal or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Welcome to the second installment of The Value of Time Podcast a new podcast offering from Pacific Portfolio here in Seattle, Washington, I'm your host Jim Ayres, Chief Investment Officer here at Pacific Portfolio. This week we're going to take a look at the cryptocurrency space. I should let you know for the sake of context we actually recorded this interview you're about to hear a couple weeks ago, Bitcoin at the time was trading around 55,000. It's down roughly 30% since then, trading around 40,000. That actually compares to it's mid April high of 65,000. Not to give too much away, but this really does help to highlight one of the main themes of the interview, which is as fascinating as the cryptocurrency spaces to watch. It is not for the faint of heart.

So we're just past the halfway mark for the second quarter and so far things continue to look pretty good. Stocks are up roughly 4% so far in Q2. If you add that on top of the 6% or so we saw in Q1, you've got what already makes for a very solid year for stocks and we're not even at the halfway mark for the year. Now the quarter to date number, it's important to realize, owes a lot to the exceptional showing that we had back in April, at that time investors were digesting the sharp pickup in economic activity here in the US and globally and they repriced stocks sharply higher. As a result, we got a really nice 5% pop in the market in April. So far in May it's really been a lot more treading water and the C's have occasionally been fairly choppy.

The S and P is down about a percent actually month to date and it would be very easy for investors to slip into that, sell in May and go away mindset. That's the old wall street adage that says investors might as well just ignore the market between the period of May and October, period that historically is either been marked by churning and consolidation or headwinds to the market. We actually don't think that's going to be the right approach for this year. Despite what may be apparent on the surface, we think that below the surface there's enough dispersion and rotation going on that this period will probably continue to be pretty interesting for investors. So, as I mentioned, the market is actually down slightly months to date. And a lot of that is being driven by the loss in momentum of some of the former high flyers, the large growth companies, which make up at this point, a pretty significant weighting in the index.

It's actually the areas that had long been neglected by investors during the pandemic, the more cyclical, more value in small cap oriented names that really have taken the leadership in this massive rotation that we've been seeing in recent months. So if, for example, we look at the NASDAQ 100 index, which is very heavily skewed towards high-flying tech stocks, communication stocks, healthcare stocks, it's actually down about four and a half percent so far in May. At the same time, if we look towards some of the deepest value names we could look at, so say steel stocks, which are up 25% so far in May or energy stocks, which had been severely beaten are now up over 22%. It's clear that there is a lot of rotations still going on and a lot of momentum shifting into some of these areas that will benefit more as the economy continues to move forward.

So the overall message what we're trying to say here, isn't that you should be rotating your portfolio entirely out of one area and into another, timing the market we believe is a soccer's bad and rarely ends well. We think taking a more diversified approach, having exposure to the various styles and sectors and asset classes and perhaps tilting your portfolio as we have, when we see an environment shaping up that may favor one area over another is the better approach to take. It's also critical to managing risk over the long-term. So with that, let's get to our interview.

Our guest today is, Nels Garnaas, research analyst here at Pacific Portfolio and our in-house expert on all things crypto. So Nels, I consider myself a reasonably intelligent person and I've been doing this a long time, a financial expert. Yet I have to admit, even I have a difficult time wrapping my head around some of the things we're going to talk about today. I know you're going to throw things at me like blockchain and so forth. We spend a lot of time talking about Bitcoin. So to make things a little bit easier, I'm going to do something I don't normally do. I'm going to tip my hand in advance and let you know that if I could break this down into three basic questions, I would say, crypto, what is it? Why do I want it? And what's it worth? So knowing that that's where I want to go here down the garden path, let's start at the beginning here. Cryptocurrency, what are we talking about?

Nels Garnaas:

So cryptocurrency is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange. This is built on a digital ledger called blockchain technology in which every transaction is ratified by an extremely robust cryptography system. First to understand cryptocurrency, you have to understand blockchain technology and what that is, is a digital ledger. So basically of sorts that every time you sell or buy or there's any kind of transaction with any kind of cryptocurrency is recorded in this digital ledger that is ratified from thousands of computers around the world. So that's where the decentralization comes in.

Jim Ayres:

So you mentioned decentralization and a lot of times you hear, particularly younger generation talking about the disintermediation of the big financial institutions.

Nels Garnaas:

Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Jim Ayres:

So one of the big things apparently about crypto is that it's peer to peer. It doesn't require… You ask me, that's kind of like, well, it's a neat feature, but I have a difficult time tying that, the benefit of that feature in with the astronomical price changes I've seen in cryptocurrencies.

Nels Garnaas:

Exactly. I don't think anybody really knows what that's going to look like. They're more tied to that idea of decentralization, right? And I mean, regardless of your opinion on whether that's good or that's, you got to face reality at one point and realize, well, there's a lot of major financial institutions that are already, these centralized institutions that are knocking a lot of that up easily. At this point, I don't know, there's not enough out there besides the hope to really give that a lot of leeway, I would say.

Jim Ayres:

So the key to what we're talking about here sounds as though it's the blockchain. So I understand the blockchain is the ledger where every transaction is recorded in a distributed manner in perpetuity, right?

Nels Garnaas:

Yeah.

Jim Ayres:

Can be changed. Why do I care? Supposedly the blockchain is the value offered by crypto assets and yet I don't understand where the value comes into play.

Nels Garnaas:

So blockchain technology is... One of the main appeals to it is the security behind it. And it was one of the hardest things virtually impossible to hack into or I mean, really be altered in any way. And so one of the mass appeals from it is investing in this, the security of your assets is paramount to almost any other investment type.

Jim Ayres:

So here's the things that caught me by surprise. So everybody's talking about crypto right now and Bitcoin in particular, it's up 500% over the past year of course everyone is talking about it, right? Bitcoins actually been around as you know a little over a decade here and has had certainly what I'd say kindly its ups and downs, having followed it with some curiosity for awhile, I still remember the Mt. Gox incident back in 2014, 2015, 850,000 Bitcoin disappeared almost overnight. I did the math, that's like $47 billion at today's value. And it was simply gone. The company shut down and the next day filed for bankruptcy. That doesn't really jive with me in terms of the safety of my assets. The other thing that shocked me is I read that as of 2017, 5% of the outstanding Bitcoins are quote unquote, lost. The owners lost their private keys-

Nels Garnaas:

Yeah.

Jim Ayres:

5%, $51 billion, lost. It still exists. The ledger tells you it exists, but no one can spend it ever because the key to unlock it has been lost.

Nels Garnaas:

And that's a other thing, you're right. So there is risk in, I mean, it's almost so secure that it's up to you and the password that you get. If you forget that password, that's pretty much it. I think there's a story, I can't remember the date, but there's a... I think came out within the last year of this guy who owns approximately $250 million worth of Bitcoin. He is on attempt eight out of 10 of his password. So he can go on only two more attempts to get this password. And he's admittedly said he has no idea what it is. And he's apparently a piece, but that's also the risk. I mean, I don't know, write down your passwords.

Jim Ayres:

That should have been chapter one of crypto for dummies, right? Write down your password.

Nels Garnaas:

Yeah.

Jim Ayres:

So we've talked a little bit about what it is, and as you may have guessed from my quizzical comments, why do I want it? I don't get that part. So I can certainly relate as someone who with experience trading the stock market, everyone at some point in their life has said, "I want to own this because I think it's going up," right? Worst possible reason to invest in something is just because you think it's going up, but everybody has done in the stock market. Other than maybe a belief that Bitcoin is going up more from here, why do I want it? I don't necessarily need a blockchain.

Nels Garnaas:

Yeah. I think Bitcoin's an interesting one. I think there's other ones that maybe you can look at it more and create a stronger case. A strong case for Bitcoin is that it is [inaudible 00:09:32] , right? There's not a finite amount of Bitcoin, you can't create another Bitcoin. So people look at it as a store of value. But when you look at the drivers, I mean, it's pretty much the sentiment. It's what people think it is. And so there's not really anything behind that price other than demand, pushing that price up.

Jim Ayres:

Now you're jumping into question number three, which is, what is its worth? And you make a good point. The supply is not only limited in terms of a cap, but limited in terms of pace of creation, Bitcoin can only be mine at a certain pace. So the real driver of price can only be demand. That brings me to the point where I would say what has happened fundamentally economically for Bitcoin to be worth five times what it was a year ago, other than speculation.

Nels Garnaas:

I think there's a lot of different theories about that. Mine is that I think just markets in general, global markets have been just so crazy, and especially with coronavirus, there's been so much unknown, but I think people are fleeing to these different newer assets and that might've been one of the reasons that you saw such a big spike.

Jim Ayres:

See my big concern is that we're dealing with a major case of FOMO, the fear of missing out, right? People see an asset moving at just astronomical speed, unrelenting to the upside, it corrects a little bit and then just takes right off again. And they feel like they need to get in on this, which is potentially fine for your play money, right? Your Vegas money, but strikes me as a pretty precarious proposition for someone to consider doing with what I would call a true investment portfolio.

Nels Garnaas:

I agree. And it definitely just... A lot of it also comes down to risk appetite. If you're 20 years old, well, one, you're probably not investing money with a consulting company, but-

Jim Ayres:

But you should be.

Nels Garnaas:

I think, yeah. If you're coming to or planning to or closer to that retirement age or even just trying to build or save for your kid's college fund or yada yada, yada, whatever you're valuing your money as, no this is the risk... I mean, the risk reward is way too high for something that a reasonable advisor should propose to a client, especially now, especially if there's still much a lot of up in the air with-

Jim Ayres:

Yeah. No, you make a good point. I had made some notes earlier before we spoke looking at some of the very dramatic price reactions crypto, Bitcoin in particular has had in the past. And just to remind people because investors as a class tend to be fairly anchored on recent events. 2014 Bitcoin, basically the declined 70%, 2018 Bitcoin declined 80% from its peak. So clearly someone going into something like this needs to understand that they're coming in at fairly elevated levels and that this asset class does have a history of making some pretty dramatic turnarounds. I think it's pretty clear from the way I've gone about this. I came in expecting to play devil's advocate and I think I have, trying to pick holes in this.

The last thing I'll throw at you here and then perhaps we'll move on to some related topics. I took a look here, the total value of outstanding Bitcoin, it's equivalent two and a half percent of the total value of the US stock market and the US stock market is kicking off 2 trillion in earnings and 400 billion in dividends a year. Can you tell me, what's the yield on a Bitcoin right now?

Nels Garnaas:

I'm not even sure what the yield is right now.

Jim Ayres:

No. That's right. Bitcoins don't pay interest or dividends. I forgot that part.

Nels Garnaas:

So that's actually a funny thing. So talking about, Bitcoin no, so if you own a Bitcoin, not necessarily it's not going to pay a dividend or interest, but so, I don't know if you've heard of Ethereum, it's the second biggest cryptocurrency by market cap. They run on more of a network, so they're more of a utility coin, right? So they build this... Their blockchain that it's built in such a way that you can build other coins on top of different kinds of financial products on top of it. So there's this thing called a Wrapped Bitcoin. So WBTC that you can buy and then lend out to the Ethereum network to help build other things and receive interest by lending. So there are different ways you can actually earn like yields on these things and yet again, that's very new. So there's not a lot of research being done into that in terms of how safe is that investment house.

Jim Ayres:

So yeah, it's interesting. I saw something probably very similar to that on Coinbase's website, the new IPO that came out, where you're able to lend out your various crypto assets. But I mean, just like anything else, I would assume if I lend you $5, I have the risk that you don't never pay me back. If I lend you my Bitcoin, I would assume I also have the risk that you don't ever pay me back.

Nels Garnaas:

I agree. And I don't think there's enough information out there to... That necessarily... I mean, even when I was looking into it, the same question was posed to me. I was like, "Well, how do I make sure that it's coming back to me?" And everything I read is like, "It'll be fine."

Jim Ayres:

So you raise an interesting point there. One reason why you represent our expertise in this space is it's really the whole crypto space is more of your generation. You invest in crypto assets.

Nels Garnaas:

I do.

Jim Ayres:

So tell me what was it that was driving your interests other than my interest of, "I'm just watching this out of curiosity." You actually put money on the line. What was it that drew you to invest in this?

Nels Garnaas:

For me, I invested in a lesser known cryptocurrency. It's called Stellar Lumens. It was actually acquired by IBM or they partner, they put a lot of money into it, about four years ago. I think I invested in five years ago. The main attraction for me is that this digital currency wasn't trying to be the... It wasn't trying to be this decentralized financial interrupter that is going to really not mesh well with established institutions already. So the point of this coin is to make transactions in between global institutions and different types of Fiat currencies a lot faster and a lot cheaper and still work harmoniously with established currencies today. So say if like a bank here US Bank of America wants to send some money to the Swiss banker. You can, instead of having lengthy fees and transaction processes, now you can do that through the Stellar network with pennies on the dollar in a 10th of a second.

Nels Garnaas:

And so I think there was a real market there for that kind of product and especially at the price point, I think when I bought in, there was at 8 cents a share and now I think it's at... Well, it was today, back to the volatility, it was at 73 this morning. It's at 64 currently, but I-

Jim Ayres:

Cents or dollars?

Nels Garnaas:

What? Cents. Cents. I wish dollars.

Jim Ayres:

Maybe one day.

Nels Garnaas:

But so I think there is real room. If you look past Bitcoin, I think there are real... There's real room for some of these cryptocurrencies to coexist in our current financial climate, but you really just have to dig deeper and look at what these currencies are trying to accomplish and how they are trying to accomplish. And another thing I want to touch on is, I don't know if you did any research on how the impact of mining environmentally?

Jim Ayres:

That's something that's really only come up recently, but it has really struck a nerve with some people you should touch on that. Tell us-

Nels Garnaas:

I know. So it's kind of... So Bitcoin uses mining, right? And there was a study that just came out that says, Bitcoin produces 37 mega tons of carbon dioxide annually and which is estimated in 30 years to raise the global temperature by two degrees Celsius-

Jim Ayres:

By itself.

Nels Garnaas:

By itself.

Jim Ayres:

Just creation of some Phantom digital asset on a network somewhere.

Nels Garnaas:

Well, exactly. And because of the sheer amount of computers that are going and working day and night tirelessly consuming energy in these huge giant labs. I mean, it's kind of crazy.

Jim Ayres:

So I would throw out there that perhaps the billions and billions in value being created by this cryptocurrency is not exactly worth the cost we're going to wind up paying for it .

Nels Garnaas:

Possibly. I mean, that's a good argument. That's why there's other altcoins that use a different process, such as the Stellar Lumen network, they use what is called consensus, a consensus mechanism. So basically it's a series of different servers across the world that will sync together to validate a transaction. The studies have said that this has a neutral effect. There's almost significantly less energy used than the mining process.

Jim Ayres:

Okay. Sounds like a massive innovation. It's almost the 2.0 of crypto. You would think, I mean, in a traditional real-world technological application, a change like that would instantly pull market share away from the legacy operation in favor of the new, more efficient operation. How is it that Bitcoin still has a stranglehold? And you mentioned there's Bitcoin and then as you call it altcoin, altcoin is actually the polite word for these other offerings. I won't say what the other one is. None of them, even the second largest one, you mentioned Ethereum, is a fraction of the quote unquote market cap of Bitcoin. How is it that even though these other people are building off of Bitcoin's design and making it better and making it more environmentally friendly, they're not able to pull away some of the momentum that Bitcoin has retained?

Nels Garnaas:

Well, I think one, because Bitcoin had such a head start. Once that value became so high, I think people are attracted to that higher number and even though there was other ideas that might be say, newer tech, they were still all right, Bitcoin is clearly number one seems like maybe the more safe play. The other thing is, yeah, so you have mining compared to consensus validation. The attractive thing in mining and why it hasn't gone away and why there are still coins being made that are using the mining technology is because mining offers people, miners ways to earn that kind of currency through validations on the blockchain. So for every so-and-so transactions that they validate, they earn a certain amount of that coin. And so there is attractiveness that way from, I mean, just mining standpoint.

Jim Ayres:

So touching on altcoin, I don't want to leave this topic without talking about the ICO's initial coin offerings. Frankly, this is an area that for me has somewhat attracted from the credibility of the whole crypto space when you had things, I think it was Domino's pizza coming out with their own coin at one point, I mean, you and I have talked in the past about something called Dogecoin. I was watching a podcast the other day talking about an incredibly successful crypto offering that literally was constantly like, "Do not buy this initial coin offering." And the demand for it was crazy. There seems to be a tremendous amount of speculative interest in coins of all types. And I would venture to guess a lot of them are not worth, I can't say the paper they're printed on because they're not printed, they're not worth the ether that they're taking up the bandwidth. How would one... Assuming that one wanted to speculate with some play money that they never thought they would ever need ever in their lifetime, if they lost it, how would one go about assessing the opportunity?

Nels Garnaas:

Well, I think that starts with being diligent in your research and finding... I mean, there's thousands of these currencies out there and most of them are terrible. A lot of these... I mean, Dogecoin was made as a meme. And I mean, the only reason I think has any sort of credibility, if you can call it credibility, is because Elon Musk keeps on pumping it up and up. I think he just recently released that he is funding like a SpaceX project solely paid for in Dogecoin and he named the rocket DOGE-1. So when you have that kind of stuff going on, I mean, if the coin is completely worthless other than that, it's almost sensationalized into this large value-

Jim Ayres:

So my point was how is a rational investor supposed to navigate an environment where a coin that really has no value or utility that anyone can easily identify and yet is constantly going up in value because it's being pumped by this person or that person. How does one go about assessing the validity of an opportunity in the crypto space?

Nels Garnaas:

You do have to find those companies and really do some diligent research onto, well, what is causing these fluctuations? Look into the mission statement. Why was this created? What purpose does this serve? Do you think this purpose has any validity? Again, Dogecoin was created as a meme, but when you look at Stellar Lumens, it was created as a way for International banks to do business for fractions of the cost and for tens of a second faster. And obviously those are just two examples, one bad one good. But there's... Once you do... You look a deeper dive into it, it is pretty easy to see which ones have absolutely no intrinsic value whatsoever and some of that might be worth throwing a little casino money on.

Jim Ayres:

So I feel like you kind of teed this one up for me, because one thing I was going to try to do here was bring our conversation back to what the heck is a Bitcoin anyway, but you're talking about the purpose of it. Say, "Hey, I have a Bitcoin here in my pocket. What the heck can I do with it?"

Nels Garnaas:

Well, you can buy a Tesla.

Jim Ayres:

Okay. So we've identified two uses of Bitcoin. You can invest in them and you can spend them. Any other fundamental purpose?

Nels Garnaas:

What can you do with gold? You can invest in it and you can sell it. It's almost a store of value. Right? And so that's what Bitcoin is being presented as. You can look at gold. It's nice and shiny.

Jim Ayres:

So gold is probably the most often cited comparison for a Bitcoin and again, part of the purpose for Bitcoin, the stated purpose at least, was to create a currency that wasn't at risk of the printing press of a monetary policy authority, particularly following the oh [inaudible 00:23:31] 8 0 9 crisis there was this sense. And it panned out pretty well, that the Central Bank was just going to start printing money. And we didn't necessarily really debase the currency but that was I think the fear and that's what all the gold bugs loved their gold for, is it protects them from that. The theory is that Bitcoin serves that same purpose. I have a difficult time... I feel like I'm repeating myself here, but I have a difficult time reconciling the $55,000 price of a single Bitcoin with the fear of monetary debasement. Gold has not moved much in the past six, 12 months.

Nels Garnaas:

I agree. If you're telling me, I'm not too sure I'm a believer in Bitcoin. I think if you were to invest, I would invest in other coins. I think $55,000 is quite honestly insane, but again, it's that belief that there's something that it's this FOMO that Bitcoin is going to be something in 10 to 15 years that maybe we can't even see or maybe such a crucial part of the global economy or the way that we do finance. There's this fear of missing out sentiment that is driving people crazy and it's driving that price up the roof. So even though people don't necessarily know what or how it's going to look like in the future, I think that fear of missing out on whatever that may be is what keeps people in the game.

Jim Ayres:

See, I think some of the analogies I've seen is people saying, "Crypto is what the internet was in 1990." And you had this new technology, you couldn't really wrap your head around it, but it became fundamental and omnipresent, essential to the economy. I can't really, perhaps it's a generational thing, I can't really project crypto becoming that intrinsic to our daily lives. And the other argument I've heard is that let's assume crypto is successful. Let's assume it becomes part of the global banking system and part of global reserves. All of a sudden you find yourself in a situation like we did in 2008, 2009 or last year and it's the COVID pandemic incident and you need a monetary policy to push on the gas. 21 million Bitcoin, which is the hard limit, the hard cap on it doesn't give you that leeway. And there's speculation by some that they will have to increase that cap at some point, which obviously would be the same as printing more money. So at that point, the true fundamental reason for a Bitcoin if there is one, would go up in smoke.

Nels Garnaas:

For one I don't... I still have a hard time believing that cryptocurrency will take over and dominate global currency like global finance. I do believe strongly that it will have a large part in it, but I think that part will be auxiliary. Are you going to print more bitcoin is how are you going to tackle those challenges when there are economic downturns or crisis like you mentioned? I just think... Bitcoin, I think was created on the premise of let's create something new, let's have this to take over global currency. And I think that has evolved into now more of a store of value primarily. So I think maybe the mission of Bitcoin has changed while other clients have then taken over on like the decentralized finance main goal. I don't think necessarily that's the biggest attraction of a Bitcoin anymore.

Jim Ayres:

Yeah. I mean, there's certain required characteristics of an asset for it to be considered a currency, a medium of exchange. One of them is store of value. I choke every time I try to say that because I don't want to store my value in something that declined 70 to 80% in a year.

Nels Garnaas:

But every single time it's done that it's gone higher.

Jim Ayres:

Sometimes a decade later, but yes, you're right. So let's move on to the last aspect of the crypto space that I think we can fit into our agenda for today. And it's one that has helped inform my skepticism towards this space. And that is the anonymity involved. So if you talk to the folks in the crypto space, they tell you, "Well, no, it's public. The ledger is public. It identifies every account, the money flowing from account A to account B." Yes, but every account is identified with a unique number, no name. I can see it flow from account 1, 2, 3 to account 10, 9, 8, but there's no record of who the money came from or who it went to. That has given rise to a widespread belief, which may or may not be valid, I'll let you comment on that, that the crypto space is terrific for illicit activity and money flows for activity that can't be seen flowing through a legitimate channel. How do you respond to that?

Nels Garnaas:

I mean, that was one of the biggest worries about Bitcoin and concerns when it first started, right? Is that, I mean, I think most people I know that had Bitcoins or first thought about Bitcoins is when they were buying a fake ID at 19 years old. I think some people like having everything be very private and non-traceable by any entity, I think that's an attraction for some people granted that does mean that by nature, it can be taken advantage of by people that have criminal intentions and whether or not there's a way to... There is no way to track that.

Jim Ayres:

Not only is there no way, there's no regulatory authority, there's no oversight body over-

Nels Garnaas:

Totally.

Jim Ayres:

Crypto.

Nels Garnaas:

Again. Yeah. I think part of that is a lot of people want that. I think a lot of people are sick of having a regulatory body over financial institutions and everything. I think a lot of those people maybe don't understand the importance of having regulation. I think overregulation is a problem, but at the end of the day, I think some regulation is good. I think a lot of that drive, especially for decentralized finance, is that they want a peer to peer. They don't want to have one central institution controlling every flow.

Jim Ayres:

So it's interesting, as I think back over what we've been talking about here, I find that in my second and my third question, why would I want one and what is it worth? We've really proven that we can't answer those right now. At the same time, there's so much uncertainty out there. This is something that has defied expectations already and clearly it's changing by the day. If I were to attempt to recap for you, as we wrap things up, I would say, "God, this probably isn't for everyone." Certainly I think we've made the case that some people with a higher risk tolerance and some speculative money to play with might find an interest in this and hey, maybe things will change over the next 10, 20 years but for the time being, I would say crypto is fun to watch but probably not for everybody.

Nels Garnaas:

Our job is to take our client's moneys and invest them responsibly. And we need a reasonable basis for any asset to be included in a client's portfolio and right now, cryptocurrencies do not meet those requirements.

Jim Ayres:

Thank you, Nels.

Nels Garnaas:

Thanks Jim.

Jim Ayres:

Well, that's all for this episode. Be sure to tune in next month. Well, thanks to Nels for a great interview and special thanks to my [inaudible 00:30:20] producers for making this such a great show.