“US FLIGHT GDP 2025…YOU’RE COMING IN TOO HOT…GO AROUND!!”
“Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. I know the flight crew just finished telling you to prepare for (a soft) landing, buuut we’re a little bit too heavy on fuel for that at the moment – seems this baby’s got a lot more left in the tank than anybody realized! Sooo, we’re just gonna keep flying around for now; go ahead and get comfortable, have some more complementary pretzels, start another movie…it might be quite a while before we attempt any kind of landing whatsoever!”
Your seat backs and tray tables aren’t the only things that are up at this point: economic growth expectations are on the rise as we speak. Already, the U.S. economy was cruising at a healthy altitude – unusually healthy for this stage of the economic expansion’s life cycle, in fact: real (i.e., after inflation) GDP growth for the U.S. came in at a surprisingly chipper +3.1% for the 3rd quarter, versus economists’ consensus expectations of +2.6%, and the NY Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast is currently anticipating that Q4 will come in at a +3.0% reading. This is well ahead of the +1.75%-+2.0% that an extremely large, developed economy like the U.S. should reasonably be expected to sustain over the long-term.
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